Quoting from his latest book, The Big Switch: Rewiring the World, from Edison to Google, he writes:
"The replication of tens of thousands of independent data centers, all using similar hardware, running similar software, and employing similar kinds of workers, has imposed severe economic penalties on the economy," he writes. This duplication “has led to the overbuilding of IT assets in every sector of the economy, dampening the productivity gains that can spring from computer automation."I'm in basic agreement with Carr's view, as I've written previously about Carr's work. I do think the evolution he predicts will be slow, however. Our research at Computer Economics shows only 50% of organizations are showing any type of activity related to software-as-a-service, a key element of utility computing. Of course, that number may be understated, as there may be quite a bit of SaaS activity going on outside of the purview of the IT organization. Still, adoption is incremental.
The traditional IT department is a dinosaur awaiting news of its own extinction, in Carr’s view. And when the change comes the landscape will look far different. The in-house IT department “will have little left to do once the bulk of business computing shifts out of private data centers and into the cloud,” he writes. “Business units and even individual employees will be able to control the processing of information directly, without the need for legions of technical people."
The transition to utility computing ultimately will take place, just as electrical service migrated from private power plants to public utilities. The migration will take at least 20 years, if not longer. Still, those beginning careers in IT should favor skills that are business-related, such as business and systems analysis. Those positions will only grow, as organizations become more and more dependent on IT. Individuals with those skills will prosper, whether computing power resides within or outside the organization.
The end of corporate computing
Computer Economics: The Business Case for Software as a Service