Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Out of recession: US economic review and forecast

Maria Simos at E-forecasting has put together an excellent slide show on her firm's forecast for US economic activity, in light of history since the mid-1800s. This is a must-see for anyone interested in where we're headed in the near future.

Bottom line: we're already out of recession.

Some key points:
  • US GDP is estimated at 3.6% growth in Q3, marking end of recession
  • Six month growth rate in September is at 0.5% growth--first time positive since August 2008
  • US leading indicator has gone up six-fold, growth rate above the long-term trend
  • US GDP growth will peak in the 3% range, then stabilize at 2% through 2012
  • Manufacturing sector growth has already hit bottom and has started to rebound
  • Inflation will worsen due to increases in the money supply
There is much more on consumer spending, export and imports, and global trends.

You can view the whole slide show below. (Skip quickly through the first 20 slides to get to the good stuff starting on slide 21.)

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